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Dust on Highway 9: Forecasting Dust Storms in a Dry Farm Year

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Dust on Highway 9: Forecasting Dust Storms in a Dry Farm Year

Use rain, field and crash records to forecast dust storms and judge the tools that reduce their harm.

Dry springs and dusty days

Read the extension notes and Table 1, then answer the questions.

Extension Notes: A Dry Spring in Saltgrass County

1Saltgrass County is a farming county on the dry plains of the southwestern United States, where families grow wheat, cotton and sorghum. Strong winds sweep across the county most springs. When the soil is dry and bare, the wind can lift it into a dust storm, a moving wall of dust that can cut how far drivers see on State Highway 9 to a few meters in less than a minute. Crashes involving many cars have happened in these storms. This spring looks dry, so the county's farm extension agent, Ms. Yetunde Halloran, asked Teodora Begay and Callum Nakamura-Reyes, seventh graders in the county farm youth club, to help her plan.

2Wind lifts soil grains only when it blows faster than a certain speed, and that speed depends on the ground. Plants and the stubble left after harvest slow the wind right at the ground, and roots help hold soil in place. Damp soil grains stick to each other. Dust monitors beside fields have recorded the gust speed at which dust starts to blow from different kinds of ground (Table 2).

3Since 2023, the county has paid farmers to plant cover crops, fast-growing plants such as rye that cover a field between one harvest and the next planting. Rows of trees planted along field edges, called windbreaks, also slow the wind, but they take about 10 years to grow tall enough to help.

4In 2020, the state put visibility sensors and electronic signs along a 30 km stretch of Highway 9. When the sensors detect thick dust, the signs lower the speed limit and tell drivers to pull off the road, turn off their lights and take their foot off the brake, so that drivers behind them do not follow their taillights into a crash. A similar 30 km stretch farther west has no sensors (Table 3).

5This year the forecast calls for only about 5 cm of rain from March through May. Many farmers tried to plant cover crops last fall, but the seeds did not sprout in the dry soil, so about 40% of the county's fields are bare this April.

Table 1. Spring records for Saltgrass County
YearRain, Mar–May (cm)Bare fields in April (%)Dust days on Hwy 9
20186359
201916251
20208408
202112303
202254512
20237204
20246153
202514151
A dust day is a day when dust cut visibility to less than 1 km somewhere on Highway 9 in the county.
1.
Look at the years 2018 through 2022, before cover crops were paid for. Which pattern do they show?
Question 1 options
2.
Springs 2018 and 2024 each had 6 cm of rain, but 2024 had 6 fewer dust days. Which explanation fits the notes best?
Question 2 options
3.
Use paragraph 5 and Table 1. Which forecast for this spring is best supported?
Question 3 options

Wind, ground and warnings

Use Tables 2 and 3 and paragraphs 2 to 4.

Table 2. Gust speed at which dust starts to blow
Kind of groundGust speed (km/h)
Bare, dry soil30
Dry wheat stubble45
Bare, damp soil65
Growing cover crop80
4.

Use Table 2. Dust starts to blow from a growing cover crop only at a gust speed km/h faster than from bare, dry soil.

5.
Tomorrow's forecast calls for gusts up to 55 km/h. It has not rained for three weeks. Circle every kind of ground that is likely to give off dust tomorrow.

Table 3. Two 30 km stretches of Highway 9, 2020–2025
StretchDust daysCrashes in dust
East, with sensors and signs253
West, no sensors2412
6.
Find the number of crashes per dust day on each stretch. Write each answer as a decimal; do not round.

East stretch: crashes per dust day
West stretch: crashes per dust day

7.
Why is it more useful to compare crashes per dust day than to compare the total number of crashes on the two stretches?
Question 7 options
8.
Match each technology or plan to the part of the dust hazard it works on.

Planning for this spring

Use the whole sheet to answer the questions.

9.
The county can pay for one project this spring. Which project is most likely to reduce harm from dust storms on Highway 9 this spring?
Question 9 options
10.
Write a dust outlook for this spring for the county newsletter. Make a claim about how risky this spring will be, use evidence from Tables 1 and 2 and paragraph 5, and explain your reasoning. Then name one technology that will help this spring and one that will help in future years, and say why.